How Much Discount Do 2026 Shoppers Want? (Hint: It's Not 50% Off)

Scroll through your Black Friday inbox, and you'll see a wall of "50% OFF EVERYTHING." This formulaic approach to discounting is expensive for brands to offer, and for many of their subscribers, 50% off is way more than they need to give away.

Attentive's July 2026 Consumer Pulse asked BFCM shoppers for the smallest discount that would get them to buy. Four in five said 40% off or less would do it. One in ten said they don't need a discount at all.

Discount more than that, and you're cutting into your profit. For most of your list, anything beyond 40% off is extra money off for shoppers who would have made a purchase for less.

This guide helps you find the right offers and numbers for different subscriber segments. You'll see what shoppers really want in 2026, what brands sent last year and six tactics for building offers that protect margins. You'll also learn when a steep discount still earns its keep, because that 50% OFF strategy should still be employed, albeit carefully.

What Shoppers Really Want in 2026

Last June, Attentive asked 600 US shoppers for the smallest Black Friday/Cyber Monday discount that would get them to buy something they wanted. Here's how they answered:

• More than 40% off: 21%

• 20–40% off: 45%

• Less than 20% off: 25%

• No discount needed: 10%

Value Beats Big Markdowns

Shoppers are worried about rising prices and managing pressure on household budgets. Many are approaching holiday purchases more carefully by comparing prices and waiting for deals to make their money go further.

This means that consumers are cautious, not broke. 87% told Attentive the economy will change how they shop BFCM, and 42% plan to compare brands more. But budgets are mostly holding, as PwC's Holiday Outlook 2026 projects average gift spending down just 2%.

The 2026 shopper is deliberate. They'll still buy. They just want to feel sure the deal is worth it.

Go Beyond a Discount

When Attentive asked what would make shoppers most likely to buy beyond a discount, the answers were clear:

• Free shipping: 68%

• Gift with purchase: 42%

• Price match guarantee: 39%

• Extra loyalty points or perks: 35%

Framing matters, too. In Valpak's 2026 Holiday Survey, total dollars saved (37%) edged out percent off (32%) as what makes shoppers act.

What Brands Sent Last BFCM (And What Worked)

The brands that won BFCM 2025 didn't do it with huge discounts. Here’s how it all played out.

• Discounts shrank, yet sales grew. Klaviyo found average BFCM 2025 discounts fell to about 26%, down roughly 10% from 2024. Same-site sales still rose 11%. Brands with the smallest discounts grew fastest, up 14% year over year.
  
  

• Plenty of winners skipped the discount, entirely. Omnisend's CEO shared that roughly half of its brands' high-performing BFCM emails offered no discount at all. When there was one, 10–25% off was the sweet spot.
  
  

• Simple offers beat stacked offers. Attentive's BFCM Marketer Pulse found brands using tiered discounts were 29% more likely to report improved performance. Marketers also said stacked offers like "20% off + an extra 10%" underperformed compared to a simple "30% off sitewide."

Looking ahead, Adobe forecasts 2026 Cyber Week discounts will be generally on par with last year’s offers. Ultimately, the market isn't raising discounts, so you don't have to either.

6 Email Tactics to Use This Holiday Season

With all of this data in mind, here are a few ways we recommend approaching your offers, discounts and messaging.

1. Anchor on a moderate offer and keep it simple. Pick a number in the 20–40% range that your margin can handle. Say it once and say it clearly. "30% off sitewide" beats "20% off + an extra 10% with code." If a shopper needs to do math to understand your deal, you've already lost them.
   
   

2. Add a tier. Spend-more-save-more offers let shoppers earn a bigger discount instead of handing everyone the same flat cut. Try 15% off $75 and 20% off $150, with tiers set just above your current AOV. According to Attentive, 43% of shoppers who spent more than planned during BFCM 2025 said they bought more to get better deals.
   
   

3. Make free shipping loud and set the threshold within reach. This is the top non-discount motivator. Put it in the subject line or preheader. Set your threshold a bit above AOV, as 27% of last year's overspenders added items just to earn free shipping.
   
   

4. Segment your discounts. Not every subscriber needs the same offer. Give VIPs early access, give full-price buyers value-adds and save a discount code for your deal-seekers. 41% of shoppers say VIP-exclusive discounts are what's most likely to bring them back.
   
   

5. Add offers into your flows. Open abandoned cart email 1 with a reminder, reviews and shipping details. Test an offer in email 2 or 3, as Rejoiner recommends. Then lean on behavior. 90% of shoppers say price-drop alerts would make them more likely to buy. 88% say seeing a discount on something they viewed or carted makes them more likely to buy, as well.
   
   
   

6. Test your framing before Cyber Week. Use October promos as your lab. Run dollars off vs. percent off, and flat vs. tiered. Pick winners on AOV and margin, not just opens and clicks. Explore the full Q4 and Q1 calendar to make the most of the shopping season.

A Quick Guide to Offer Types

When Do Deeper Discounts Still Win?

Moderate discounts aren’t favored by everyone. Attentive’s 2026 BFCM Shopper Report says that 21% of shoppers still say they need more than 40% off. And some categories walk a tricky line, so offering a higher discount may pay off better for them. Klaviyo found mid- and high-AOV brands saw their best open rates at 30–39% off, while Home & Garden needed even steeper markdowns. Adobe expects electronics to peak around 30%, at least.

If your brand lives within these categories, we recommend saving your steepest offer for Cyber Week and for clearing inventory. Send it only to the segments that need it.

Build Your Best Email Offers

Your best holiday offer isn't always the biggest one. It's the one that converts without giving away more margin than it has to. Test your framing early, use tiers and thresholds to grow carts. You can always keep the steep stuff in your back pocket for when it counts.

Backstroke's AI can help you test creative framing and match the right incentive to each subscriber segment, so your best messages go to the shoppers who want them.

Interested in learning more? Schedule a Backstroke demo here.